We should not argue about all or none evolution. Some proteins can lead to some changes in organisms. But that does not cover the whole story. I see those who say they haven’t seen any evidence against materialistic evolution. But it is very much available in scientific articles in peer-reviewed journals. There are also those who say evolution is established. That is only in part.
It can be difficult for people to
understand vast numbers involved and also the chemistry of proteins because
they are admittedly complicated (and I am no expert but I think I have the relevant concepts). Also, when we use examples, like card games,
we must be careful and try to get down to the bottom of the truth. Metaphors
and analogies can be helpful but they only go so far and can even be
misleading.
To begin, the terms “Combinations” and
“Permutations” are different and are calculated differently. There is an
explanation of the different formulas for figuring 4 kinds of combinations and
permutations on the web page by Rod Pierce, "Combinations and Permutations," Math is Fun, Advanced, Sept. 30, 2018 (citation below). Combinations do not
require a specific order of possible items or units. Permutations do require a
specific order. Both are also defined by whether repetition of units is allowed
or not allowed. All of these are calculated differently and bring very
different answers.
The Math is Fun website uses the letters “n” and “r”
to denote the number of types of a “thing” and number of the things chosen,
respectively. The author then shows how these symbols are used in different equations.
In an example about proteins I will explain below, one term is n^r. The ^ symbol stands for a
caret which is used to denote an exponent. The exponent, in this case “r”,
tells you how many times to multiply the base, in this case “n”, times itself
to get the answer.
Many think of cards when it comes to probabilities. In a deck of cards, there are 52
different kinds, such as the Ace of Diamonds, but only one of each is available
in figuring number of combinations of each hand. If there is only one deck used, there is no
repetition of each of these kinds. The individual poker hand is smaller yet--only, for example, 5 cards. Also, the order in which you draw the cards
does not matter. For a Royal Flush, you don't have to draw the Ace first, King second, etc.
In this case, you will run into another
symbol, the “!”, known as the factorial function. It means that you multiply a
number times all the next whole descending numbers, such as: 5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2
x 1 = 120. The formula to find the number of possible 5-card poker hands is n!
/ r! (n-r)!. That’s n! divided by r! times (n-r)! where n is 52, the total number of
cards, and r is 5, the number that is chosen. The number of 5-card hands for a 52-card
deck is 2,598,960, or about 2.6 x 10^6. (The Math is Fun site uses billiard balls but the category is the same.) Probability is related to these possible numbers which I will discuss below.
Now, a functional protein, which is made
up of units called amino acids, is usually longer than 100 units. Some have
thousands depending on which function they have. There are 20 types of amino
acids in biological life. The function of proteins depends on the chemistry of
each of these amino acids and how they interact with each other. In talking
about the probabilities of these amino acids, we don’t even get into the
chemistry of how they might avoid interacting with other types of molecules. So
at this very basic level, an important point to make is that there can be any
number of each of the 20 kinds of amino acids in the proteins. Therefore,
repetition is allowed in this case and therefore must be part of the
calculation of the number of possible permutations. Order of the amino acids is
of primary importance if you want the protein to work. Therefore order must be
part of the calculation of the number of potential permutations. When
repetition is allowed and order matters, the formula is n^r, the example given above. For a protein of
100 amino acids, that would be about 20^100 possible permutations, or 10^130 in
base 10. In contrast, the estimate of the number of particles in the universe is
10^90, and seconds in 14 billion years about 4.4 x 10^17.
It may seem that getting a functional protein would be easy with this amount of permutations. But that is where probability comes in. Probability is closely related to the inverse of combinations and permutations. In general, probability of an event equals the number of ways an event can happen divided by the number of total possible outcomes. For example, a die has 6 total possible outcomes but only 1 actual outcome per event. Each event (tossing the die) would have the probability of 1 divided by 6, or 1 in 6. If you have 8 marbles in a bag and 6 are blue and 2 red, your chance for picking a red one are 2 divided by 8, or 1 in 4. In poker, the Royal Flush is the most rare hand, an Ace, King, Queen, Jack and 10 of the same suit. There are 4 ways this event can happen of the 2,598,960 possible outcomes, giving a probability of 1 in 649,740 (about 1 in 6.5 x 10^5). A lot of people play poker throughout the world, so the event does happen every so often. More information on probability can be found at Wikipedia HERE.
With proteins of 100 amino acids, the total number of possible permutations is approx. 10^130. In an increasing number of experiments on proportion of protein function the number of amino acids per examined protein has been around 100, with functional protein outcomes in the realm of 10^60. This is admittedly a very high number. But the probability that 1 of those outcomes would be selected is 10^60 divided by 10^130, which equals 1 in 10^70.
The experiments for protein rarity have focused on the function of simple folds. The probability of complete, large proteins would be smaller. The maximum number of individuals that could have lived on Earth even in 4 billion years is 10^50, which limits the number of "tries" for functional proteins. With bacteria there is less than 1 mutation per generation and with humans less than 10^2. Probabilities are used in science such as chemistry. It is reasonable to see these scientific discoveries as evidence against materialistic origins and evolution of life. The implications of these numbers are further developed in my recent blog post “Important Research.”
With proteins of 100 amino acids, the total number of possible permutations is approx. 10^130. In an increasing number of experiments on proportion of protein function the number of amino acids per examined protein has been around 100, with functional protein outcomes in the realm of 10^60. This is admittedly a very high number. But the probability that 1 of those outcomes would be selected is 10^60 divided by 10^130, which equals 1 in 10^70.
The experiments for protein rarity have focused on the function of simple folds. The probability of complete, large proteins would be smaller. The maximum number of individuals that could have lived on Earth even in 4 billion years is 10^50, which limits the number of "tries" for functional proteins. With bacteria there is less than 1 mutation per generation and with humans less than 10^2. Probabilities are used in science such as chemistry. It is reasonable to see these scientific discoveries as evidence against materialistic origins and evolution of life. The implications of these numbers are further developed in my recent blog post “Important Research.”
The citation for the Math is Fun page is:
Pierce, Rod. "Combinations and Permutations" Math Is Fun. Ed. Rod Pierce. 30 Sep 2018. 13 Jan 2020 <http://www.mathsisfun.com/combinatorics/combinations-permutations.html>
